Ghana’s heavy reliance on Dubai as the primary destination for its small-scale gold exports could expose the Ghanaian cedi to renewed pressure as tensions in the Middle East disrupt trade routes.

More than 72% of Ghana’s small-scale gold exports are sent to Dubai, making it the country’s most important market for the commodity. In 2025 alone, Ghana exported about 103,804 kilograms of small-scale gold through the Ghana Gold Board, with Dubai accounting for the majority of those shipments.

Conflict disrupting gold transport

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has forced the closure of several airspaces across the Middle East, significantly affecting air cargo routes commonly used to transport gold from Ghana to Dubai.

Because of these disruptions, gold shipments have slowed, reducing the flow of export proceeds back into Ghana’s economy. This is significant because those proceeds provide an important source of foreign currency used to support the cedi.

How gold exports support the cedi

Under Ghana’s current system, the Bank of Ghana purchases gold from small-scale miners through the Gold Board using cedis. The gold is then exported, and the foreign currency earned from those exports is returned to the central bank.

The central bank subsequently injects those dollars into the domestic foreign exchange market. This recycling of gold export earnings has become one of the key mechanisms helping stabilise the cedi in recent months.

However, the slowdown in shipments caused by Middle East airspace restrictions means fewer export proceeds are entering the system.

Heavy dependence on just two markets

Ghana’s small-scale gold exports are highly concentrated. Alongside Dubai, India absorbs roughly 25% of shipments. Together, the two markets account for almost 99% of Ghana’s small-scale gold exports.

This concentration creates a structural vulnerability. Any geopolitical disruption affecting either market can quickly ripple through Ghana’s foreign exchange supply chain.

Traceability limits access to premium markets

Another challenge is the absence of a comprehensive gold traceability system for small-scale mining.

Without supply-chain verification, Ghanaian gold struggles to enter stricter markets such as Switzerland or the United States, where refiners require proof of responsible sourcing.

Because of this, Ghana often sells to markets like Dubai where scrutiny over gold origins is less strict.

Potential currency impact

Gold prices have played a major role in supporting the cedi over the past year. But disruptions to exports could weaken that support if the situation persists.

The Bank of Ghana currently holds more than $13 billion in foreign exchange reserves, equivalent to about 5.7 months of import cover, but those reserves are generally used only during severe economic shocks.

For now, the cedi remains relatively stable at around 10.79 cedis to the dollar. However, prolonged disruptions to gold exports could reduce the supply of foreign currency entering the market, increasing pressure on the local currency.

Efforts to diversify markets

Authorities say the Ghana Gold Board is exploring alternative markets to reduce dependence on the Middle East. India is being considered as an immediate option, though selling to new markets could involve higher logistics costs and deeper price discounts.

In the long term, Ghana hopes to expand access to premium markets by introducing traceability systems and securing certification from the London Bullion Market Association.

Until those reforms are implemented, Ghana’s gold exports will remain heavily reliant on Dubai and India — leaving the country’s currency exposed to geopolitical shocks far beyond its borders.