Deloitte: Strong Tax Reforms and Stability Key to Achieving Ghana’s 2026 Revenue Target
Deloitte says Ghana’s ability to meet its revenue target for 2026 will depend heavily on how effectively government implements planned tax reforms, strengthens tax administration, maintains macroeconomic stability, and reduces the overall cost of doing business.
In its review of the 2026 National Budget, the firm noted that several major tax changes, including adjustments to the Value Added Tax system, are set to begin in 2026. It added that achieving the revenue outlook will require close monitoring of risks and timely policy adjustments.
Deloitte highlighted revenue shortfalls recorded in 2025 across key areas such as PAYE, corporate income tax, VAT, excise duties, the growth and sustainability levy, and import duties. It advised government to conduct a deeper assessment of the causes of these gaps, while strengthening audit systems and enforcement to close loopholes and prevent further losses.
The analysis also pointed to the impact of global oil and gas price fluctuations driven by geopolitical tensions, combined with reduced local production. These developments, it said, have weighed down petroleum revenue and pose short and medium term risks to budget performance. Deloitte recommended introducing incentives to stimulate production and encourage private investment in the sector. It also urged government to consider hedging strategies to cushion the economy from price volatility, while accelerating development of non oil sectors to broaden the revenue base.
On the planned overhaul of the VAT regime, Deloitte described the reform as a timely response to concerns raised by private sector actors at the National Economic Forum and other engagements. It stated that the policy can succeed if it broadens the tax base, enhances administrative efficiency, improves compliance, and maintains strong enforcement. These steps, it added, will help protect revenue and support long term economic transformation.
Deloitte further observed that Ghana’s Modified Taxation Scheme, introduced in 2015 and updated in 2022 to improve tax compliance among SMEs, continues to face challenges due to widespread informality and low taxpayer awareness. It recommended intensified public education, streamlined digital tax systems, and regular dialogue with SME groups to improve adoption and effectiveness.
Government’s 2026 fiscal plan projects total revenue and grants at 268.1 billion cedis, up from the 229.9 billion cedis target in 2025. The projections rely on enhanced revenue measures expected to contribute about 0.8 percent of GDP. Tax revenue alone is forecast at 223.9 billion cedis, representing roughly 83.5 percent of total projected revenue. Non tax revenue is estimated at 26.7 billion cedis, making up about 10 percent of domestic revenue.
